10-Year Treasury 1-Month Implied Range

The 10-year yield at 4.45% as of May 4 close, combined with realized volatility over the past month (+2.56%) and the 52-week trading band, suggests a forward 1-month range of approximately 4.20-4.70%, or roughly ±25bp from current levels. Direct TY options volatility data is not publicly available through standard channels, so this estimate derives from realized move history and the structural positioning of the curve.

Key takeaways

• Current 10Y yield stands at 4.45% ¹, having risen 2.56% over the past month ², indicating elevated realized volatility in the intermediate term.
• The 52-week range of 3.35-5.00% ² places current yield at the 67th percentile, near the upper third of historical bounds, leaving ~55bp of room to test the 52W high.
• The 10Y-2Y spread at 50bp ¹ reflects a flattened curve; any move in 10Y is unlikely to fully decouple from 2Y, constraining outsized directional range.
• Absence of published TY options ATM straddle IV for May expiry ³ limits precision; the estimated range is therefore anchored to realized historical move, not forward-looking options pricing.

Signal table

Caveats

CME TY (10-year Treasury note futures) options data for May 2026 expiry is not available through public search channels; the range estimate relies on historical realized volatility rather than forward-implied volatility from an ATM straddle, which would be more precise for a 1-month horizon. If you require the actual options chain, direct access to CME data terminals or broker platforms will be necessary.

Model-derived probabilities anchored to current data; not investment advice. Past base rates and current market-implied probabilities do not guarantee future outcomes.