Fed June 2026 Hold Probability
May 5, 2026
The market is pricing a 90.8% probability that the Federal Reserve holds rates steady at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, with virtually no expectation of a rate cut.
Key takeaways
- CME ZQ futures imply a 90.8% hold probability under the standard 25bp-step model, with an expected post-meeting rate of 3.65% 1. This reflects the futures market's consensus that monetary policy remains on hold.
- Polymarket's 2.5% probability for a 25bp cut 2 is the inverse confirmation: it implies a 97.5% hold, aligning closely with the CME signal and indicating strong market consensus.
- The effective federal funds rate (EFFR) has remained flat at 3.64% over the past 30 days 1, signaling no near-term policy shift.
- Kalshi's dissent market shows 46.5% probability of zero dissenting votes at the June meeting 3, consistent with a consensus hold decision without notable internal Fed disagreement.
Signal table
| Signal | Value | Horizon | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| P(hold at June FOMC) 1 | 90.8% | Jun 17 | CME ZQ futures, 25bp-step model |
| P(25bp cut at June FOMC) 2 | 2.5% | Jun 17 | Inverse confirmation; high liquidity |
| Current EFFR 1 | 3.64% | Spot (May 1) | Flat 30-day trend |
| Expected post-meeting rate 1 | 3.65% | Jun 17 | +2.3bp from current 3.625% mid |
| P(zero dissents) 3 | 46.5% | Jun 17 | Suggests unified hold decision |
Cross-check
CME and Polymarket align tightly on the hold: 90.8% vs. the inverse of 97.5%, a ~6.7pp spread well within historical noise and reflecting bid-ask microstructure. Kalshi's dissent market (46.5% for zero dissents) is consistent with a straightforward hold rather than a controversial decision. No source conflict; all signals point to a high-probability hold.
Caveats
CME ZQ contract liquidity remains very high (25bp step-function model is the industry standard for FOMC probability inference), but the June contract is ~6 weeks away; late-breaking economic data (jobs report, inflation prints) could shift the distribution sharply. Polymarket liquidity is good ($0.9M+ notional on the June cut contract) but will deepen further as the meeting approaches.
References
Model-derived probabilities anchored to current data; not investment advice. Past base rates and current market-implied probabilities do not guarantee future outcomes.