Real questions, real research
Reports we hand-picked from real user runs. Each one shows the conclusion at the top and the full data behind it underneath.
Fed June 2026 Hold Probability
The market is pricing a 90.8% probability that the Federal Reserve holds rates steady at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, with virtually no expectation of a rate cut. - CME ZQ futures imply a 90.8% hold probability under the…
Fed Funds Rate Pricing by Year-End 2026
The futures curve prices zero net rate cuts through December 2026. ZQ (30-day fed funds futures) implies the Fed holds rates at 3.50-3.75% across all five remaining 2026 FOMC meetings, finishing the year at 3.74% , a net…
Fed September 2026 Rate Cut Probability
The market is pricing an extremely low probability of a 25bp cut at the September 2026 FOMC meeting, with ZQ futures implying only a 4.3% chance based on the 25bp-step framework. - ZQ futures pricing 95.7% hold probabili…
S&P 500 30-Day Implied Move from VIX
At the current VIX reading of 18.29 , the S&P 500 is pricing approximately ±5.3% volatility over the next 30 days. With the index at $7,200.75 , this translates to an expected trading range of roughly $6,819 to $7,582, o…
10-Year Treasury 1-Month Implied Range
The 10-year yield at 4.45% as of May 4 close, combined with realized volatility over the past month (+2.56%) and the 52-week trading band, suggests a forward 1-month range of approximately 4.20-4.70%, or roughly ±25bp fr…
BTC 30-day 1-sigma implied move (Deribit ATM IV)
Deribit's 30-day ATM IV as of 2026-05-03 stands at 37.48% annualized . Converting this to a 30-calendar-day 1-sigma price range from current spot of $80,824 : Calculation: - T = 30 / 365 = 0.0822 years - σT = 0.3748 × √0…
Bitcoin $120k Year-End 2026 Probability
Polymarket has no direct $120k contract, but observable market-pricing signals bracket the probability at 8-12%. The $200k outcome trades at 4.2% , current spot is $80.5k , and ATM implied volatility at 54.2% allows roug…
ETH Options Market Implication for $3000 Close by Year-End 2026
ETH Options Market Implication for $3000 Close by Year-End 2026 The options market does not directly quote a Dec 31, 2026 $3000 strike on major venues, but available signals, current spot price, implied volatility, perpe…
USD/JPY above 160 in next 3 months: probability assessment
The market is pricing a substantial but not overwhelming probability that USD/JPY breaks above 160 over the May-August window. Current spot at 157.24 sits 2.2% below the 52-week high of 160.70, which was already breached…
US Recession Probability: 12-Month Outlook
Prediction markets price a 25-26% probability of an NBER-defined recession by May 2027, anchored to resilient near-term growth but vulnerable to geopolitical shocks and late-cycle risks. The yield curve is steepening (10…